01
Document de travail
11
·
septembre 2026
Weak-signal
detection in regional labour data.
Nous vérifions si les séries administratives du travail portent des signaux détectables de basculement sectoriel plus tôt que les instruments d’enquête. Sur 14 années de données néo-brunswickoises, trois des onze séries devancent de plus de deux trimestres.
Survey instruments are the standard way to read a labour market. They are also slow: fielded, collected and published on a cycle that lags the thing they measure.
The test
We took fourteen years of New Brunswick administrative labour data and asked whether any series moved before the surveys did. Eleven series were in scope.
The result
Three of the eleven lead the survey instruments by more than two quarters. The remaining eight do not lead reliably enough to act on.